Overview
VAT is a common liability that significantly affects cash flow. It involves several components, each requiring its own forecasting approach. This guide outlines these movements and offers strategies to balance forecasting accuracy with the effort required. If simplicity is your priority, consider a basic approach. For example, you might assume last month’s VAT value remains constant for all future periods or use a percentage of revenue to approximate VAT liabilities going forward.Basics
Your VAT liability can be broken down into four main movements:- Beginning value
- Additions during the month
- Detractions during the month
- Settlements during the month
Beginning value
Include the beginning value to reflect accumulated liabilities. Use a formula that references the ending value of the previous period to accurately carry forward the balance.Additions and subtractions
When forecasting additions and subtractions, determine which P&L and balance sheet movements are subject to VAT. Decide on the level of detail needed—broad assumptions may be enough for a reliable forecast.- Detraction during the month = Total cost * Assumed % of costs with VAT * VAT%
- Additions during the month = Total income * Assumed % of income with VAT * VAT%